Hi all. I am using my brother's system to type this, so please bear with me. I'm a girl, know nothing about football, but want to get a few dollars in where it might make a difference. So I have decided to take up football. But I don't know what I'm doing, so I need some help. My brother won't help me, so maybe you all can. I have heard that there are both posted lines and public perception, or what the lines should be. I can't see where the public would make a difference. Of course, I also can't see how I could tell if the posted line is right or not. So how do I tell what lines are proper, which ones are (as my brother calls them) false favorites, or how to know if a posted line is too high or too low. Could someone help me please? thank you, Katie.
My new article on the subject
Hope this clears it up...
Going Against Public Teams
by Jeremy Martin
Doc’s Sports
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When it comes to betting on NFL football, there is one constant, never-changing truth. The recreational or ‘square’ bettors like to take the favorite and the ‘over.’ This group makes up the biggest portion of the betting public and they are the ones that keep the sports books profitable.
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The public’s love of the favorite can be taken even one step further. Certain teams take on a ‘public team’ status due to their success on the field. When the public develops this love affair with a particular team, they respond with heavy betting action. Teams with big-name stars, explosive offenses and a good record tend to take on a public team status. To the hordes of recreational bettors, laying the points on a public team is of no concern. Even huge point spreads will not weaken their zeal to bet on these squads.
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It’s in a bookie’s best interest to try to balance out the action on as many games as possible each week. If successful, they are assured a profit because of the vig (commission) that is charged on sports bets. However, when public teams are involved it becomes increasingly difficult to get balanced action.
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Therefore, bookies are faced with a quandary. If they set the line without the public in mind, they have to open their doors to the professionals in order to assure two-way action. The professional bettors – or ‘wise guys’ – make a living at the expense of the sports books. A more attractive option is for books to ‘shade’ the favorite. This involves tacking an extra point or two onto the line for the favored team. If the bookmaker thinks Philadelphia is a seven-point favorite over a much weaker team, for example, the line could be set at nine because the bookie knows they everyone will be betting the favorite.
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This strategy, in effect, pits the bookie against the public – which is more desirable than going against the wise guys. If the bookies are adding points to the favorite, this would obviously create some chances to find value in going against these public teams. In addition to the extra points that bookmakers add to public team, they must also move their lines according to incoming handle. When going against public teams, it is often best to wait until right before game time to place a wager. This gives the smart player the best chance at getting the number he or she wants.
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“The savvy bettor knows that when you see a real public team playing a not so public team, if you wait close to game time generally the public drives the number up a point or maybe a point and a half,” said Leo Shafto, head oddsmaker for Royal Sports. “There certainly (can be) value (there).”
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Public teams tend to gain popularity after the first month of the NFL season. Teams that go 3-0, and especially 4-0, are the ones that the public will jump on with reckless abandon. According to Bob Scucci, race and sports book director for the Stardust Resort and Casino in Las Vegas, three wins to start the season doesn’t necessarily win over the public. Four wins, however, is golden in the public’s eyes.
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“That (four) seems to be the critical number,” he said. “The teams that go 4-0 usually make the playoffs and most of the time go pretty deep into the playoffs. We notice it after the fourth victory. That’s when the money starts piling on. It’s deep enough into the season where (bettors) know the team is not a fluke. There aren’t four bad teams in the NFL.”
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Case in point is a team like Jacksonville, which is 3-0 straight up and against the spread with wins over Buffalo, Denver and Tennessee. Scucci said that he doesn’t expect to get a huge amount of public action on the Jaguars this week for their home game against Indianapolis (the Jags were four-point dogs at press time). If the team does win that critical fourth game, they should become a public team – especially with teams like San Diego, Kansas City and Houston on the horizon.
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Scucci thinks the public teams this year will be the Eagles, Minnesota, the Colts, Seattle and Oakland. The Raiders may seem like a surprise to be on this list. This is one of the rare teams that holds public team status from year to year unless they have a disastrous campaign like they did last season. Even though they are only 2-1 on the season, Scucci has been seeing a lot of renewed interest in the team from the public bettors. It doesn’t hurt that the Stardust gets a large influx of Raider fans visiting every weekend from California.
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One notable absence from Scucci’s list of public teams is New England. This squad went 14-2 last season ATS en-route to a Super Bowl victory. The Stardust director thinks that this team does not have the (offensive) glitz and glamour that is a prerequisite for public team status. There’s no McNabb to Owens, Manning to Harrison or Culpepper to Moss. The notion that the Pats are not a favorite of the general betting public is probably the only way the team managed to do so well ATS last season.
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“It’s a funny kind of phenomenon,” commented Scucci. “The Pats win (so many) games in a row and for some reason the public still doesn’t jump on this team. Maybe it is because they don’t do anything terribly exciting. But all they ever do is win.”
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The public can be fickle and bookmakers must be able to adjust when public teams fall out of favor with the bettors. Kansas City is a great example. This was the most popular public team from last year. It had everything the public loves – an explosive offense and a roster full of Pro Bowlers. During its 9-0 start last year, the public developed a love affair with the team that has continued into the early part of this season. This is despite the fact that the team showed signs of being one dimensional down the stretch in 2003.
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Now the Chiefs are 0-3 and winless ATS. The public has dropped them like a bad habit. The books were slow to adjust on the team after a big home loss to Carolina on Monday Night Football, Kansas City’s second loss. They were installed as more than a touchdown favorite last week at home versus Houston. Scucci said the Stardust got beat pretty bad on the game because there was heavy action from the public on the Texans. The books had to rethink their strategy and this week the Chiefs are a 5 ½-point dog in Baltimore. Scucci believes the line could be close to seven by game time.
<o></o>
It is just as important for bookmakers to determine which teams will become the darlings of the public as anything else they do to prepare the number for a game. Mistaking where the public money will land could mean potential disaster for the books and potential profits for the die-hard students of football betting.
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Hope this clears it up...
Going Against Public Teams
by Jeremy Martin
Doc’s Sports
<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
fficeffice" /><o></o>When it comes to betting on NFL football, there is one constant, never-changing truth. The recreational or ‘square’ bettors like to take the favorite and the ‘over.’ This group makes up the biggest portion of the betting public and they are the ones that keep the sports books profitable.
<o
></o>The public’s love of the favorite can be taken even one step further. Certain teams take on a ‘public team’ status due to their success on the field. When the public develops this love affair with a particular team, they respond with heavy betting action. Teams with big-name stars, explosive offenses and a good record tend to take on a public team status. To the hordes of recreational bettors, laying the points on a public team is of no concern. Even huge point spreads will not weaken their zeal to bet on these squads.
<o
></o>It’s in a bookie’s best interest to try to balance out the action on as many games as possible each week. If successful, they are assured a profit because of the vig (commission) that is charged on sports bets. However, when public teams are involved it becomes increasingly difficult to get balanced action.
<o
></o>Therefore, bookies are faced with a quandary. If they set the line without the public in mind, they have to open their doors to the professionals in order to assure two-way action. The professional bettors – or ‘wise guys’ – make a living at the expense of the sports books. A more attractive option is for books to ‘shade’ the favorite. This involves tacking an extra point or two onto the line for the favored team. If the bookmaker thinks Philadelphia is a seven-point favorite over a much weaker team, for example, the line could be set at nine because the bookie knows they everyone will be betting the favorite.
<o
></o>This strategy, in effect, pits the bookie against the public – which is more desirable than going against the wise guys. If the bookies are adding points to the favorite, this would obviously create some chances to find value in going against these public teams. In addition to the extra points that bookmakers add to public team, they must also move their lines according to incoming handle. When going against public teams, it is often best to wait until right before game time to place a wager. This gives the smart player the best chance at getting the number he or she wants.
<o
></o>“The savvy bettor knows that when you see a real public team playing a not so public team, if you wait close to game time generally the public drives the number up a point or maybe a point and a half,” said Leo Shafto, head oddsmaker for Royal Sports. “There certainly (can be) value (there).”
<o
></o>Public teams tend to gain popularity after the first month of the NFL season. Teams that go 3-0, and especially 4-0, are the ones that the public will jump on with reckless abandon. According to Bob Scucci, race and sports book director for the Stardust Resort and Casino in Las Vegas, three wins to start the season doesn’t necessarily win over the public. Four wins, however, is golden in the public’s eyes.
<o
></o>“That (four) seems to be the critical number,” he said. “The teams that go 4-0 usually make the playoffs and most of the time go pretty deep into the playoffs. We notice it after the fourth victory. That’s when the money starts piling on. It’s deep enough into the season where (bettors) know the team is not a fluke. There aren’t four bad teams in the NFL.”
<o
></o>Case in point is a team like Jacksonville, which is 3-0 straight up and against the spread with wins over Buffalo, Denver and Tennessee. Scucci said that he doesn’t expect to get a huge amount of public action on the Jaguars this week for their home game against Indianapolis (the Jags were four-point dogs at press time). If the team does win that critical fourth game, they should become a public team – especially with teams like San Diego, Kansas City and Houston on the horizon.
<o
></o>Scucci thinks the public teams this year will be the Eagles, Minnesota, the Colts, Seattle and Oakland. The Raiders may seem like a surprise to be on this list. This is one of the rare teams that holds public team status from year to year unless they have a disastrous campaign like they did last season. Even though they are only 2-1 on the season, Scucci has been seeing a lot of renewed interest in the team from the public bettors. It doesn’t hurt that the Stardust gets a large influx of Raider fans visiting every weekend from California.
<o
></o>One notable absence from Scucci’s list of public teams is New England. This squad went 14-2 last season ATS en-route to a Super Bowl victory. The Stardust director thinks that this team does not have the (offensive) glitz and glamour that is a prerequisite for public team status. There’s no McNabb to Owens, Manning to Harrison or Culpepper to Moss. The notion that the Pats are not a favorite of the general betting public is probably the only way the team managed to do so well ATS last season.
<o
></o>“It’s a funny kind of phenomenon,” commented Scucci. “The Pats win (so many) games in a row and for some reason the public still doesn’t jump on this team. Maybe it is because they don’t do anything terribly exciting. But all they ever do is win.”
<o
></o>The public can be fickle and bookmakers must be able to adjust when public teams fall out of favor with the bettors. Kansas City is a great example. This was the most popular public team from last year. It had everything the public loves – an explosive offense and a roster full of Pro Bowlers. During its 9-0 start last year, the public developed a love affair with the team that has continued into the early part of this season. This is despite the fact that the team showed signs of being one dimensional down the stretch in 2003.
<o
></o>Now the Chiefs are 0-3 and winless ATS. The public has dropped them like a bad habit. The books were slow to adjust on the team after a big home loss to Carolina on Monday Night Football, Kansas City’s second loss. They were installed as more than a touchdown favorite last week at home versus Houston. Scucci said the Stardust got beat pretty bad on the game because there was heavy action from the public on the Texans. The books had to rethink their strategy and this week the Chiefs are a 5 ½-point dog in Baltimore. Scucci believes the line could be close to seven by game time.
<o
></o>It is just as important for bookmakers to determine which teams will become the darlings of the public as anything else they do to prepare the number for a game. Mistaking where the public money will land could mean potential disaster for the books and potential profits for the die-hard students of football betting.
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As far as the first part of the question goes, look no further than Hansen and follow his picks. If you cannot make your own plays, he is as good as you are going to get on here. After a while, when you get to know the posters, you can pic an mix.
On the subject of Public money, dont give a hoot. I am sick of reading on this Forum people talking of Public money, as if they are not part of it. Anyone who is swayed by the so called "Public Money" is an idiot. Bookmakers make lines to get money, they dont care where it comes from. It is a subject that I cannot get into here but most people on this site, havent a clue about bookmaking.
Good Luck
On the subject of Public money, dont give a hoot. I am sick of reading on this Forum people talking of Public money, as if they are not part of it. Anyone who is swayed by the so called "Public Money" is an idiot. Bookmakers make lines to get money, they dont care where it comes from. It is a subject that I cannot get into here but most people on this site, havent a clue about bookmaking.
Good Luck
Thank you very much for the complete insight, JM. WINBET and Piranha, thank you also for your fine writeups. I'll follow the three mentioned, the deal about PUBLIC MONEY I have to look into because as I think I know what you are talking about, I believe I want nothing to do with it. Just the term PUBLIC MONEY makes me think that this is where the lines are posted depending upon which team is getting the most action. I know statistics and mean values etc. and there is absolutely no place for me in that realm. As far as I'm concerned, each person is his/her own person and being swayed by the 'majority' is not my cup of tea. Even the majority can be wrong in a lot of cases.
The lines that are posted are getting more and more on my curiosity side. I think I have some sort of idea where they come from, with stats and injuries. But there has GOT to be a way that I can figure in how well one team will beat the otherr. Are the Packers REALLY better than the Chiefs by 3.5 points? Or are the Chiefs actually the better team by 6 points? I'm just trying to get a handle on this myselfl, trying to ignore what LVSC puts out (or anyone else for that matter) and see if there's some way I can make my own lines for comparison.
All the work that JM put into that, I can see where this is coming from and I really do appreciate it. As something to get my mind working a bit harder for next semester, this would be a very good project that I can work on. And there seems to be a lot to work on, with STATS, INJURIES, Points per game and how many points is Brett Favre worth if he's in or out? I know, I have a lot of work ahead of me, but I'm getting more and more determined to figure this out. thanks again. Katie
The lines that are posted are getting more and more on my curiosity side. I think I have some sort of idea where they come from, with stats and injuries. But there has GOT to be a way that I can figure in how well one team will beat the otherr. Are the Packers REALLY better than the Chiefs by 3.5 points? Or are the Chiefs actually the better team by 6 points? I'm just trying to get a handle on this myselfl, trying to ignore what LVSC puts out (or anyone else for that matter) and see if there's some way I can make my own lines for comparison.
All the work that JM put into that, I can see where this is coming from and I really do appreciate it. As something to get my mind working a bit harder for next semester, this would be a very good project that I can work on. And there seems to be a lot to work on, with STATS, INJURIES, Points per game and how many points is Brett Favre worth if he's in or out? I know, I have a lot of work ahead of me, but I'm getting more and more determined to figure this out. thanks again. Katie
Ok, well I guess I tried. Thanks guys, for all your help. I narrowed this all down to the PUBLIC MONEY thing, really. I can see where this could be a problem with serious gamblers, and when the points are lifted or dropped by 1 to 1.5 points this could make some (Losers) a bit narrow-minded. Everything seems to be a 50/50 deal here. Points go up, must be that this team has a better chance at not covering, but the so-called bookmakers want to make it look like the team has an advantage. It could also make it look as if everyone's betting on that team. But on the third hand (gee, that makes sense), it could be that no one is and bringing the points up looks good.
So, it's all a mind game, am I right? So back to the original quesiton worded differently. If I think I have the correct team to win, how do I know if they're good enough to win by the posted spread? (now THERE'S a word I heard a lot recently). AHEM!!! the DIPSTICKS are good enough to win, and they will, but are they 18 PTS good enough? or should I go the other way?
Thanks all,
Katie
So, it's all a mind game, am I right? So back to the original quesiton worded differently. If I think I have the correct team to win, how do I know if they're good enough to win by the posted spread? (now THERE'S a word I heard a lot recently). AHEM!!! the DIPSTICKS are good enough to win, and they will, but are they 18 PTS good enough? or should I go the other way?
Thanks all,
Katie
